Operator hub
Intelligence
Eva is the brain. It feeds four products: Eva Trades, Yield Generation, Trade Mill, and Kalshi Event Strategies.
Product sleeves
Real capital across four products. Eva Trades is the swing ICT book. Yield Generation is the stable book. Trade Mill is mechanical idea clips. Kalshi Event Strategies are short-dated event contracts.
Live horizon read
H4 / H1 / M15 stances for BTC and ETH. Click a pill for the rationale.
| H4 | H1 | M15 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | bearish · 66% | neutral · 0% | bearish · 66% |
| ETH | neutral · 33% | neutral · 0% | bearish · 66% |
Since 2026-09-17T16:30:00Z these pills publish the deterministic trend score. The LLM writes the rationale but no longer overrides the score: measured on 523 recorded overrides it was worse by 19–128 bps at 24h, in both regime halves. This posture is a trend read and has not been shown to predict its own horizon — 48–51% correct, indistinguishable from a coin flip.
Programmatic medium view: BTC H4 bearish, ETH H4 neutral.
Today's Read
Synthesized from the ICT table, four-year cycle, and news / macro. Charts and the ICT read refresh with every cycle (about every 30 minutes). This panel refreshes about every 30 minutes.
Four-year cycle Phase: Bear drawdown Since last halving: day 925 Clock: 30m · 925d into the post-halving regime
Near-term ICT: BTC H1: bias=armed bearish; holds=order block 78,463.06–79,700.00 untested; draw=buyside pool 77,588.57–77,957.75; inv=79,700.00; loc=PREMIUM ETH H1: bias=bearish; holds=order block 2,246.83–2,282.01 holding; draw=sellside pool 2,247.68–2,251.56; inv=2,282.01; loc=PREMIUM
Macro: bearish 47% sev=2 | Judge dismisses DOJ lawsuit over Alaska Senate election | classifier_error: Error code: 400 - {'type · neutral 22% sev=2 | Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate election | classifier_error. Charts and the ICT read refresh with every cycle (about every 30 minutes).
ICT table · all timeframes
Bias only while a named order block / breaker holds, with the draw on liquidity it points at and the price that kills it. Every level was found by the detectors. Refreshes with every cycle (about every 30 minutes).
| Bias | While this holds | Drawing to | Invalid below/above | Location | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC H1 | armed bearish | order block 78463.06–79700.00 UNTESTED | buyside pool 77588.57 | 79700.00 | PREMIUM |
| ETH H1 | bearish | order block 2246.83–2282.01 HOLDING | sellside pool 2247.68 | 2282.01 | PREMIUM |
“no call” is a result, not a gap: the array is named but no directional bias is locked until price trades into it or a holding state confirms. “armed” means the lean applies only if price comes back to an untested array. Invalidation is an M5 close through the level.
Marked structure · H4 / H1 / M15
Vision across the timeframes Eva is monitoring — order blocks and key levels, not a buy/sell recommendation. Also shows EMA12/26, range position, and HH/HL/LH/LL swings. Charts refresh with every cycle (about every 30 minutes).
BTC
ETH
Long-horizon · 4-year cycle
Phase bear_drawdown · Bias bearish · As of 2026-11-01
Programmatic cycle read: 925 days since the last halving places BTC in the bear drawdown window by prior-cycle analogs.
ETH conduit: ETH historically follows BTC direction with higher beta and lag; treat the BTC phase as the directional conduit.
Gold: {"btc_gold": {"latest": 19.9906, "change_90d_pct": 27.59}, "eth_gold": {"latest": 0.581, "change_90d_pct": 26.61}, "available": true}
Drag to pan · scroll or box-select to zoom · double-click to reset. Green = expansion leg, red = drawdown leg, dotted = projected.
Phase table — every leg with its move and duration
| Leg | From | To | Move | Bars | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| drawdown | 2013-11-25 | 2015-01-12 | — | 14 | closed |
| expansion | 2015-01-12 | 2017-12-11 | — | 35 | closed |
| drawdown | 2017-12-11 | 2018-12-10 | -79.80% | 12 | closed |
| expansion | 2018-12-10 | 2021-11-08 | +1880.99% | 35 | closed |
| drawdown | 2021-11-08 | 2022-11-07 | -69.52% | 12 | closed |
| expansion | 2022-11-07 | 2025-10-06 | +505.63% | 35 | closed |
| drawdown | 2025-10-06 | 2026-11-01 | -37.64% | 13 | in progress |
| expansion | 2026-11-01 | 2029-09-03 | — | 34 | projected |
| drawdown | 2029-09-03 | 2030-09-02 | — | 12 | projected |
News desk
Ranked bullish/bearish with conviction %. Severity is on a scale of 1 to 5. Scores marked det are the deterministic read shown at ingest; the hourly batched LLM refine replaces them.
-
Judge dismisses DOJ lawsuit over Alaska Senate election
classifier_error: Error code: 400 - {'type': 'error', 'error': {'type': 'invalid_request_error', 'message': 'Your credit balance is too low to access the Anthropic API. Please go to Plans & Billing to upgrade or purchase credits.'}, 'request_id': 'req_011CgchkhqV4xJGrNHxQHZBh'}
-
Iranian negotiators in Qatar to continue talks to end the U.S.-Iran war: Reuters
classifier_error: Error code: 400 - {'type': 'error', 'error': {'type': 'invalid_request_error', 'message': 'Your credit balance is too low to access the Anthropic API. Please go to Plans & Billing to upgrade or purchase credits.'}, 'request_id': 'req_011CgcJVjhWYk2RXEysSHFQa'}
- Crypto card startups are racking up losses just to buy your loyalty with big rewards
- SpaceX loses bid to toss NAACP lawsuit over Memphis data center air pollution
-
Binance opens crypto withdrawals in phases starting with bitcoin following $6.3 billion hack
classifier_error: Error code: 400 - {'type': 'error', 'error': {'type': 'invalid_request_error', 'message': 'Your credit balance is too low to access the Anthropic API. Please go to Plans & Billing to upgrade or purchase credits.'}, 'request_id': 'req_011Cgc4mdbTsTgRp5VtAMcPG'}
-
FBI confirms North Korea's role in $6 billion Binance hack, asks DeFi community to block BTC, ETH, SOL addresses
classifier_error: Error code: 400 - {'type': 'error', 'error': {'type': 'invalid_request_error', 'message': 'Your credit balance is too low to access the Anthropic API. Please go to Plans & Billing to upgrade or purchase credits.'}, 'request_id': 'req_011CgbKgjSYpCNYi2oDAG86p'}
-
OPEC+ agrees in principle to keep oil output targets steady in December, sources say
classifier_error: Error code: 400 - {'type': 'error', 'error': {'type': 'invalid_request_error', 'message': 'Your credit balance is too low to access the Anthropic API. Please go to Plans & Billing to upgrade or purchase credits.'}, 'request_id': 'req_011Cgb8dQ7bkdedpz9VVeSGb'}
-
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate election
classifier_error: Error code: 400 - {'type': 'error', 'error': {'type': 'invalid_request_error', 'message': 'Your credit balance is too low to access the Anthropic API. Please go to Plans & Billing to upgrade or purchase credits.'}, 'request_id': 'req_011CgceKh54PJvfyWo94BEBJ'}
-
Everything changed for the oil, AI and bond trades over the past month
classifier_error: Error code: 400 - {'type': 'error', 'error': {'type': 'invalid_request_error', 'message': 'Your credit balance is too low to access the Anthropic API. Please go to Plans & Billing to upgrade or purchase credits.'}, 'request_id': 'req_011CgcVZ5pbkqzAaL8WMVwPp'}
- These Senate races may help determine the fate of Social Security
- The crypto reader's guide to the 2026 midterm election: State of Crypto
- Top Wall Street analysts are bullish on these 3 stocks for the long haul
- For JPMorgan, Amazon, fighting AI bots like Meta Muse may not be a winning long-term strategy
- Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week ahead
- Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy has stroke and is in the hospital, office says
- AI agents bypassed crypto spending limits without human approval, researchers find in a new test
- Alaska Sen. Sullivan says he'll accept election results, slams Peltola campaign’s reported recruitment of 2nd Sullivan
- I'm a psychologist who studies couples: People in the happiest relationships do 1 thing differently after time apart—whether it's hours, days or weeks
- The key races to watch for the 2026 election
- Social Security may have to cut retirement benefits in six years. Here's how much money is at stake for beneficiaries
- Crypto PACs made big Republican push in final weeks before November 3 election
- Sherrod Brown's Ohio edge threatens a rough go for crypto next year
- Crocs stock jumped 25% after earnings. Here's why that might be just the beginning
- The midterm election could reshape the muni bond market. Here’s what investors need to know
- Why AI is boosting Meta's ad business while hurting Google search
- Companies promised AI gains— here's how the payoff showed up in earnings
- OpenAI pares fundraising goal, now seeking up to $20 billion in latest round
- Trump defamation suit against Murdoch, WSJ over Epstein letter dismissed with prejudice
- G20 foreign ministers end Atlanta meeting without consensus on key issues
- Bitcoin's white paper turns 18, and small businesses are still paying for the bailouts it answered
Eva Trades
Live ICT books on Coinbase US futures: Swing (H12/D1) and Fast ICT (day), one feed. Abstention-first — if this book works, the intelligence is good.
Swing + Fast ICT · live (Coinbase)
House sleeve from Operator Hub · user equity is ICT + Fast ICT lane allocations. Open and closed fills from both books share one feed (badged swing / day); the chart is one line per book. Paper control stays in the collapsed journal below.
No closed live fills yet for an equity curve.
Open
1.93% to SL · 9.31% to TP
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
No rationale stored for this cycle.
Open cycle var_eva_swing_llm_144
Closed
Exits booked
- stop loss · 0.1000 @ $2194.50 -6.70 12:22 AM
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
No rationale stored for this cycle.
Open cycle var_eva_swing_llm_160
Exits booked
- take profit · 0.0400 @ $79705.00 +18.80 8:29 PM
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
No rationale stored for this cycle.
Open cycle var_eva_day_153
Exits booked
- take profit · 1.4000 @ $2387.00 +14.00 7:24 PM
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
No rationale stored for this cycle.
Open cycle var_eva_day_147
Exits booked
- stop loss · 0.0100 @ $80900.00 -9.80 4:52 PM
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
No rationale stored for this cycle.
Open cycle var_eva_swing_llm_145
Exits booked
- stop loss · 1.3000 @ $2458.00 -21.45 1:39 AM
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
No rationale stored for this cycle.
Open cycle var_eva_day_143
Agent status
Price inside bullish M5 OB (77,768.11-77,893.09) but below entry band (77,799.35-77,830.60) — wait for fib retest
- Price inside bullish M5 OB (77,768.11-77,893.09) but below entry band (77,799.35-77,830.60) — wait for fib retest
- Price inside bullish M5 OB (77,768.11-77,893.09) but below entry band (77,799.35-77,830.60) — wait for fib retest
Watching
- Bearish retest zone: 79,669.99–79,913.98
- M5 bullish order block: 77,768.11–77,893.09
- M5 bullish order block: 77,768.11–77,893.09
Last cycle: 2026-11-01T21:00:10Z
Macro news monitor
Posture: neutral · max severity 0
Sources: search.cnbc.com, coindesk.com, Webhook ingest, Telegram /macro
No active macro events (severity ≥ 3).
Recent ingested
- The crypto reader's guide to the 2026 midterm election: State of Crypto
- For JPMorgan, Amazon, fighting AI bots like Meta Muse may not be a winning long-term strategy
- Judge dismisses DOJ lawsuit over Alaska Senate election
- Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week ahead
- Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy has stroke and is in the hospital, office says
- Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate election
- AI agents bypassed crypto spending limits without human approval, researchers find in a new test
- Alaska Sen. Sullivan says he'll accept election results, slams Peltola campaign’s reported recruitment of 2nd Sullivan
- Everything changed for the oil, AI and bond trades over the past month
- I'm a psychologist who studies couples: People in the happiest relationships do 1 thing differently after time apart—whether it's hours, days or weeks
- Crypto card startups are racking up losses just to buy your loyalty with big rewards
- The key races to watch for the 2026 election
- Social Security may have to cut retirement benefits in six years. Here's how much money is at stake for beneficiaries
- These Senate races may help determine the fate of Social Security
- Crypto PACs made big Republican push in final weeks before November 3 election
Eva paper book · v2 (measurement)
Paper book v2 — the same Eva paper version that is currently live. House/agent reference book, not subscriber capital. Live Coinbase fills are in the Eva live book above.
$5000 start (5k_usd) · 89 closed · 0 open · chart-read 94.8/100 · issue rate 24.1% · epoch since 2026-08-01T00:00:00Z
Closed
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Asset preference: BTC strongly preferred over ETH. W1 ETH/BTC ratio sits at 0.02896 with a confirmed btc_strong bias and three consecutive bearish W1 SFPs at 0.03445 — ETH has been systematically losing ground to BTC on the weekly. Both assets show bearish setups this cycle, but BTC shorts are higher-conviction given relative strength. ETH shorts are lower-conviction (counter-regime for ETH-specific positioning) and are deprioritized; BTC shorts take priority. Regime: mixed/bearish. H4 chart shows a clear bearish trend — price made LH/LL sequence from ~2,560 down through current ~2,322 spot. Active H4 bearish OB (pink box ~2,360–2,410) and H4 BRKR both sit above current price as overhead supply. Weekly Open/Daily Open confluence at 2,326.58 is just above spot, acting as immediate resistance. Monday Low at 2,290.00 is the nearest downside draw, with Prev Week Low at 2,275.94 below that. H4 bearish OB and BRKR are unmitigated overhead supply. Setup phase is bearish_retest_rejected — the 24h high of 2,356.25 already tagged the supply retest zone (2,350.90–2,376.32); that retest is FILLED. Price has since rejected and ground lower into the current 24h range of 2,290–2,356 (width 2.9%, ranging=True). On M5, detected bearish OBs sit at 2,316.15–2,323.35. Spot at 2,322.53 is inside the OB body but above the 0.25–0.50 fib entry band (2,318.07–2,322.13). The alert confirms: spot is above the entry band — no valid fib tranche entry exists right now. Recent M5 SFPs include a bearish SFP at 2,330.55 (6h ago, confirmed reversal) which aligns with the short bias, and two bullish SFPs at 2,293.76 and 2,310.31 that already resolved as reversals upward — those bullish pops have faded. Decision: ETH short bias is valid structurally but spot is above the M5 OB fib band — rules require waiting for a fib retest (price to pull back into 2,318–2,322 entry band). Additionally, W1 ETH/BTC is btc_strong, making ETH shorts lower priority than BTC shorts. No valid M5 fib entry exists at current spot; returning no_trade. Re-evaluate if price retraces into the 2,318.07–2,322.13 band on M5. Market context: • Do NOT say 'waiting for rally into retest zone' — 24h high already tagged supply; evaluate SHORT on rejection • Price inside bearish M5 OB (2,318.47-2,323.35) but above entry band (2,320.91-2,322.13) — wait for fib retest
Open cycle 20261026T180000Z_ETH · Close cycle 20261027T220000Z_ETH
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Spot $2,375.74. Primary H4 zone: bullish 2,325.48-2,376.32 (bias only). Retest status (rolling 24h): NOT YET FILLED (supply 2,558.16-2,576.89). Recent valid H4 SFPs: 1 in snapshot window. Recent valid M5 SFPs: 1 in snapshot window. Nearest detected M5 OB: bearish M5 OB 2,375.57-2,380.89 (candle 2026-10-22T17:50, displacement 2026-10-22T18:05) | entry band 0.25-0.50: 2,378.23-2,379.56 | tranches @ 2,379.56 / 2,378.23 | add @ 2,377.07. No trade until LTF structure aligns with programmatic context. Market context: • Primary H4 zone: BULLISH 2,325.48-2,376.32 • Price inside bearish M5 OB (2,375.57-2,380.89) but below entry band (2,378.23-2,379.56) — wait for fib retest
Open cycle 20261022T183000Z_ETH · Close cycle 20261023T030000Z_ETH
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Spot $2,375.74. Primary H4 zone: bullish 2,325.48-2,376.32 (bias only). Retest status (rolling 24h): NOT YET FILLED (supply 2,558.16-2,576.89). Recent valid H4 SFPs: 1 in snapshot window. Recent valid M5 SFPs: 1 in snapshot window. Nearest detected M5 OB: bearish M5 OB 2,375.57-2,380.89 (candle 2026-10-22T17:50, displacement 2026-10-22T18:05) | entry band 0.25-0.50: 2,378.23-2,379.56 | tranches @ 2,379.56 / 2,378.23 | add @ 2,377.07. No trade until LTF structure aligns with programmatic context. Market context: • Primary H4 zone: BULLISH 2,325.48-2,376.32 • Price inside bearish M5 OB (2,375.57-2,380.89) but below entry band (2,378.23-2,379.56) — wait for fib retest
Open cycle 20261022T183000Z_ETH · Close cycle 20261023T030000Z_ETH
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Spot $2,375.74. Primary H4 zone: bullish 2,325.48-2,376.32 (bias only). Retest status (rolling 24h): NOT YET FILLED (supply 2,558.16-2,576.89). Recent valid H4 SFPs: 1 in snapshot window. Recent valid M5 SFPs: 1 in snapshot window. Nearest detected M5 OB: bearish M5 OB 2,375.57-2,380.89 (candle 2026-10-22T17:50, displacement 2026-10-22T18:05) | entry band 0.25-0.50: 2,378.23-2,379.56 | tranches @ 2,379.56 / 2,378.23 | add @ 2,377.07. No trade until LTF structure aligns with programmatic context. Market context: • Primary H4 zone: BULLISH 2,325.48-2,376.32 • Price inside bearish M5 OB (2,375.57-2,380.89) but below entry band (2,378.23-2,379.56) — wait for fib retest
Open cycle 20261022T183000Z_ETH · Close cycle 20261023T030000Z_ETH
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Spot $84,225.74. Primary H4 zone: bullish 83,391.57-84,261.99 (bias only). No valid H4 SFP in the recent window. Recent valid M5 SFPs: 1 in snapshot window. Nearest detected M5 OB: bearish M5 OB 84,366.93-84,534.19 (candle 2026-10-21T18:50, displacement 2026-10-21T18:55) | entry band 0.25-0.50: 84,450.56-84,492.38 | tranches @ 84,492.38 / 84,450.56 | add @ 84,414.10. No trade until LTF structure aligns with programmatic context. Market context: • Primary H4 zone: BULLISH 83,391.57-84,261.99
Open cycle 20261021T233000Z_BTC · Close cycle 20261022T070000Z_ETH
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Asset preference: ETH/BTC W1 ratio at 0.02973 with bearish SFPs at 0.034447 confirms btc_strong bias — BTC outperforms ETH on the weekly. Prefer BTC exposure; ETH trades require stronger LTF confirmation and are secondary. An existing BTC long is already open, so BTC is evaluated for position management context only (no new BTC trade). ETH is evaluated independently on its own M5 structure. HTF bearish: H4 shows LH/LL structure, price rejected from H4 bearish OB 2,418-2,451. Regime mixed/bearish. Supply retest FILLED; setup phase bearish_retest_filled confirms bears in control. H4 bearish OB 2,418.22-2,451.10 (active) is primary supply. Current Year Mid 2,455 and Daily Open 2,439 cluster here. M5 bearish OB 2,437.53-2,441.85 (00:25 candle) overlaps H4 OB. Fib 0.50 tranche at 2,440.77 is entry. Bearish M5 SFP at 2,440.88 (00:20, pending) adds confluence. Spot at 2,436 is near/below fib band; limit entry at 0.50 tranche on any retest. 24h range 2,320-2,465 (ranging). SL above 24h high 2,465+0.25%=2,466. TP1 Prev Week Low 2,404, TP2 Prev Month Low 2,355, TP3 24h Low 2,321. No macro headlines cited. Market context: • Primary H4 zone: BEARISH 2,418.22-2,451.10 | supply retest 2,434.66-2,451.10
Open cycle 20261016T030000Z_ETH · Close cycle 20261016T110000Z_ETH
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Asset preference: ETH/BTC W1 ratio at 0.02960 with repeated bearish SFPs near 0.03445 confirms BTC is the stronger asset. BTC receives priority for longs; ETH longs are downweighted and ETH shorts are preferred when structure aligns. Both assets show bearish H4 structure this cycle, so net preference is BTC over ETH for any long exposure, and ETH is the better short candidate given its relative weakness. parse_error: stop distance 0.501% below minimum 0.80% (entry 2,440.77, stop 2,453.00) Market context: • RETEST REJECTION: price 2,429.08 fell back below supply zone after tagging 2,527.60 — favor SHORT if LTF aligns • SHORT TRIGGER: bearish M5 SFP at resistance + retest rejection (evaluate deriv_sell / spot_sell) • Primary H4 zone: BEARISH 2,418.22-2,451.10 | supply retest 2,434.66-2,451.10 • Do NOT say 'waiting for rally into retest zone' — 24h high already tagged supply; evaluate SHORT on rejection
Open cycle 20261016T013000Z_ETH · Close cycle 20261016T040000Z_ETH
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Asset preference: BTC strongly preferred over ETH. W1 ETH/BTC ratio at 0.029204 with confirmed btc_strong bias; three consecutive weekly bearish SFPs on ETH/BTC at 0.034447 (Sep 11–25) show repeated rejection of ETH strength — ratio has trended down from ~0.034 to 0.029 over recent months. BTC receives full weighting for longs; ETH longs are deprioritized (ETH shorts or no_trade preferred for ETH unless an exceptional LTF setup appears). ETH/BTC bias is btc_strong (ratio 0.029204, three W1 bearish SFPs on ETH/BTC confirming BTC outperformance). BTC receives full weighting for long setups when LTF structure supports. Regime: mixed/undefined on H4. Monthly Open 83,556 and Quarterly Open 83,556 were lost in the recent selloff from ~87k highs, establishing bearish H4 structure (LH/LL sequence visible on H4 chart). However, price has now swept well below these levels and is trading near significant demand confluence — Prev Month Mid 81,142, Daily Open 81,566, Monday Low 81,634. The H4 bullish breaker (H4 BRKR) zone visible on H1 and M5 around 82,000–82,500 has been penetrated, indicating the prior bullish structure was mitigated. Current H4 bias is bearish, so this long is a counter-regime fade at demand — per rules, counter-regime trades target TP1/TP2 with tighter invalidation. H4 supply overhead: bearish H4 OB near 83,500–84,000 and larger H4 OB at 85,500–86,000. These define the TP ladder. Bullish H4 breaker (BRKR) zone ~82,000–82,500 now acts as resistance-turned-support flip zone — price is testing below it. H4 bullish SFP confirmed at 80,927.48 (Oct 15 04:00, pending, 5h ago) — price swept below that swing and the SFP is still pending resolution. M5 bullish SFP at 80,619.54 (06:05, pending, 2h ago) adds LTF confluence for demand. Both SFPs are near the 24h low 80,125 cluster. M5 OB entry: two valid bullish M5 OBs detected. The upper one at 81,198.90–81,354.14 (fib band 81,237.71–81,276.52, tranches at 81,237.71 / 81,276.52) is closest to current spot 81,167. This M5 OB has no H4 OB overlap (no conflation needed). Spot is marginally below the fib band lower tranche (81,237) — within reach for a retest entry at the 0.50 tranche 81,276.52. The lower bullish M5 OB at 80,729–80,885 (fib band 80,768–80,807) serves as the scale-in level if price revisits. Entry at 81,276.52 (0.50 fib tranche of upper M5 OB). Stop below the 24h low 80,125 with 0.25% buffer: 80,125 × 0.9975 ≈ 79,995. TPs: TP1 = Monthly/Quarterly Open 83,556 (confluence of reclaim level), TP2 = Monday High 84,261, TP3 = Prev Week High 86,996. R/R: Entry 81,276 → SL 79,995 = 1,281 risk. Entry → TP1 83,556 = 2,280 reward. R/R ≈ 1.78. Meets minimum 1.0 threshold. Setup state is bearish_retest_rejected (supply at 81,708–82,000 was tagged and rejected), which normally favors shorts. However, the H4 and M5 bullish SFPs at the 24h low area combined with the M5 OB fib entry represent a counter-trend fade at extreme demand — the M5 OB/SFP signal takes precedence per strategy rules. The conflict (bearish setup phase vs bullish M5 OB entry) is acknowledged; the long is taken because (1) two confirmed pending SFPs (H4 and M5) at the demand zone, (2) valid M5 OB fib entry at 0.50 tranche, (3) R/R exceeds 1.0, and (4) BTC/ETH bias supports BTC longs. Counter-regime conviction means targeting TP1 first and using a tighter stop relative to the sweep low. Market context: • Do NOT say 'waiting for rally into retest zone' — 24h high already tagged supply; evaluate SHORT on rejection
Open cycle 20261015T083000Z_BTC · Close cycle 20261015T140000Z_ETH
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Asset preference: ETH/BTC W1 ratio is 0.02964 with btc_strong bias. Multiple bearish SFPs on the ratio at 0.034447 confirm ETH is underperforming BTC on the weekly. BTC receives priority weighting; ETH longs are lower conviction and ETH shorts align with relative weakness. No ETH long is preferred over BTC in this environment. Regime: mixed/bear. H4 chart shows a clear bearish impulse beginning ~Oct 6 that broke below the Quarterly/Monthly Open at 2,683.92, driving a sequence of lower highs and lower lows through mid-October. Price is now trading below the Weekly Open (2,534.47), Daily Open (2,495.83), and Monday Low (2,440.12), with the Current Year Mid (2,455.02) overhead acting as resistance. H4 trend context is bearish but the current location near multi-week lows creates a corrective bounce candidate. H4 supply/demand: The active H4 bearish OB (pink, ~2,542.96–2,575.59, coinciding with Monday High 2,576.89 and Prev Week Mid 2,571.07) is the primary supply zone and remains unmitigated — this is the bearish retest zone flagged by setup phase 'awaiting_bearish_retest' at 2,558.16–2,576.89, NOT YET FILLED. Price is currently ~130 pts below that zone. No bullish H4 OB is visible on the chart near current price. LTF/M5 context: 24h range is 2,413.86–2,527.60 (4.6%, ranging=True). Price swept the 24h low at 2,413.86 approximately 6h ago and formed a confirmed bullish M5 SFP at 2,421.70 (2026-10-14T19:05, listed as pending/1h ago — not yet invalidated). A subsequent bearish M5 SFP printed at 2,431.40 (2026-10-14T19:25, pending). Spot at 2,424.77 is currently INSIDE the bullish M5 OB 2,418.92–2,430.36 fib entry band 2,421.78–2,424.64 (0.25–0.50 tranche). The bullish M5 SFP at 2,421.70 swept below Monday Low 2,440.12 and Prev Week Low 2,404.60 liquidity pool vicinity, providing a sweep-reversal trigger. Entry at 2,424.07 is the 0.50 fib tranche of this M5 OB. Conflict acknowledgment: The primary H4 structure is bearish and setup phase favors a short at the 2,558–2,576 supply zone eventually. Taking a counter-regime long here because: (1) the M5 bullish SFP at 2,421.70 is a valid programmatic trigger within the fib band, (2) price is at the 24h low with a sweep of Monday Low liquidity, and (3) R/R ≥ 1.0 to TP1 at Current Year Mid 2,455.02. This is a corrective bounce trade, not a trend reversal — TP bias is TP1 (counter-regime, quick scale-out). Decision: Long at 2,424.07 (bullish M5 OB 2,418.92–2,430.36, 0.50 fib), SL 0.25% below swept low at 2,413.86 → 2,408.51 rounded to 2,398.44 (below Prev Week Low 2,404.60 for structural clearance). TP1 = Current Year Mid 2,455.02, TP2 = Monday Mid 2,508.51, TP3 = Weekly Open 2,534.47. Invalidation: M5 close below 2,413.86 (24h low / SFP invalidation). Market context: • Awaiting bearish HTF retest: rally into supply zone 2,558.16-2,576.89 for short entry • Price inside bearish M5 OB (2,423.07-2,429.21) but below entry band (2,426.14-2,427.68) — wait for fib retest • Price in bearish M5 OB entry band 2,424.07-2,425.19 — potential short setup • Price in bullish M5 OB entry band 2,421.78-2,424.64 — potential long setup
Open cycle 20261014T203000Z_ETH · Close cycle 20261015T023000Z_ETH
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Asset preference: BTC preferred over ETH. W1 ETH/BTC ratio at 0.030008 with btc_strong bias; three consecutive bearish SFPs at 0.034447 (Sep 11/18/25) confirm ETH underperformance vs BTC on the weekly. BTC receives priority for longs; ETH longs are lower conviction and deprioritized. Regime: mixed/undefined. H4 structure shows a sharp bearish displacement from ~2,700 through Quarterly/Monthly Open (2,683.92) down to current range near 2,500. Price is now consolidating below the active bearish H4 OB (pink box ~2,558–2,577, coinciding with Monday High 2,576.89 and Prev Week Mid 2,571.07). That H4 OB remains the dominant supply zone above; the setup phase is 'awaiting_bearish_retest' with the retest zone at 2,558–2,577 not yet filled. HTF bias is bearish, but a valid bullish M5 OB entry exists at the LTF level. H4 supply context: the bearish H4 OB at ~2,558–2,577 is unmitigated and the primary resistance. Below that, price is ranging in a 24h band of 2,485.71–2,535.30 (width ~2.0%), chopping around Monday Mid (2,508.51) and Daily Open (2,495.83). Weekly Open at 2,534.47 provides near-term resistance inside the 24h range. M5 OB entry: a bullish M5 OB at 2,504.13–2,508.70 (candle 2026-10-13T21:20) has its 0.25–0.50 fib entry band at 2,505.27–2,506.41. Current spot 2,506.44 is confirmed inside this fib band ('spot IN fib'). Two pending bullish M5 SFPs fired at 2,504.92 (2026-10-14T05:10 and 05:15), adding sweep-reversal confluence. This M5 OB does not overlap any H4 OB zone. The conflict — HTF bias is bearish and the H4 OB overhead is unmitigated — is acknowledged; however, M5 OB/SFP entry precedence applies here per strategy rules. This is a counter-regime long targeting HTF levels as TP with a tight stop. Entry at 2,506.41 (0.50 fib tranche of M5 OB). SL at 2,484.50 (0.25% below 24h low 2,485.71 / Monday Low 2,440.12 confluence zone). TP1 at Weekly Open 2,534.47 (~1.27R), TP2 at bearish retest zone base 2,558.00 (~2.3R), TP3 at Monday High/H4 OB base 2,576.89 (~3.2R). Given BTCstrong / ETH underperformance bias, this is taken at base 25% deploy only; no scale-in add unless H4 structure resolves bullish. Counter-regime trade: prefer TP1 scale-out if Weekly Open 2,534.47 is reached without momentum. Market context: • Awaiting bearish HTF retest: rally into supply zone 2,558.16-2,576.89 for short entry • Price in bullish M5 OB entry band 2,505.27-2,506.41 — potential long setup
Open cycle 20261014T053000Z_ETH · Close cycle 20261014T103000Z_ETH
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Asset preference: BTC preferred over ETH. W1 ETH/BTC ratio sits at 0.030158 with a confirmed btc_strong bias — the ratio has printed three consecutive bearish W1 SFPs at 0.034447 and continues to trend lower on the weekly chart, meaning BTC is outperforming ETH. BTC longs are prioritized; ETH longs are lower conviction and require a cleaner setup to justify equal weight. Regime: mixed. H4 structure shows a sharp bearish impulse from ~2,700 down to ~2,405 (Oct 8), followed by a recovery — Weekly and Monthly structures are not both aligned bullish, so no pure bull regime applies. The H4 chart shows price attempting to reclaim the Weekly Open (2,534.47) from below, with a visible pink H4 OB in the 2,558–2,581 zone (Prev Month Mid 2,581.15 / Prev Week Mid 2,571.07 / Monday High 2,576.89). This H4 OB is the nearest unmitigated bearish supply and represents the ceiling for any bullish attempt. On the H1 chart, price rallied into the H4 OB cluster (2,558–2,581) and has since pulled back. The 24h high of 2,562.08 was made 23 hours ago, confirming the supply retest is FILLED — a bearish rejection is the primary scenario from that zone. Price has since dropped back below the Weekly Open (2,534.47) and is now sitting at ~2,526. The M5 chart shows a bullish M5 OB at 2,523.40–2,531.90 (candle 2026-10-13T07:20). Current spot 2,526.08 is inside the fib 0.25–0.50 entry band (2,525.53–2,527.65), making this a valid long entry per fib rules. A confirmed bullish M5 SFP printed at 2,410.78 (7h ago, reversal confirmed) providing the HTF demand context. There are two pending bearish M5 SFPs at 2,529.19 (1h ago) which introduce overhead risk — these are the key conflict. However, the M5 OB fib entry is valid per strategy rules, and the pending bearish SFPs are above the entry zone, not at it. M5 OB takes precedence for entry; bearish SFP risk is acknowledged. ETH/BTC bias: BTC is preferred (btc_strong W1 ratio with three bearish SFPs on the ratio). ETH is lower conviction. This trade is taken only because the M5 fib entry is precisely triggered and the bullish SFP from 7h ago provides demand context. Sizing will be standard 25% deploy. SL set below Monday Mid (2,508.51) at 2,494 (0.25% below the swing low cluster). TP1 at 24h high 2,562.08, TP2 at Prev Week Mid 2,571.07, TP3 at Monday High 2,576.89. R/R ≈ (2,562 - 2,526.59) / (2,526.59 - 2,494) = 35.49 / 32.59 ≈ 1.1. Minimum threshold met. If price closes below Monday Mid 2,508.51 on H1, trade is invalidated. Market context: • Do NOT say 'waiting for rally into retest zone' — 24h high already tagged supply; evaluate SHORT on rejection • Price in bullish M5 OB entry band 2,525.53-2,527.65 — potential long setup
Open cycle 20261013T080000Z_ETH · Close cycle 20261013T110000Z_ETH
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Asset preference: BTC strongly preferred over ETH. W1 ETH/BTC ratio at 0.030127 with btc_strong bias; multiple bearish W1 SFPs on ETH/BTC at 0.034447 confirm ETH is underperforming BTC structurally. Prioritize BTC setups; ETH longs are low-conviction given relative weakness. HTF structure (H4): ETH has printed a sharp bearish leg from the 2,725 swing high (Oct 7), establishing a clear bearish bias on H4. Price has broken below Quarterly/Monthly Open 2,683.92 and is now trading near the Daily Open 2,472.90 and Current Year Mid 2,455.02. Regime is mixed/bear: weekly structure is rolling over (LH from 2,725 after prior HH/HL sequence fractured), monthly open lost. Setup phase is bearish_retest_rejected, meaning the H4 bearish OB retest zone 2,559–2,576 was rejected — this strongly favors shorts on any meaningful bounce. No H4 bullish OB is nearby to support a sustained long. H4 supply/demand: Three bearish H4 zones are visible on the M5 chart — H4 OB ~2,542–2,575 (the bearish supply/retest zone), H4 BRKR ~2,678–2,710 (former bullish OB now a bearish breaker), and H4 OB ~2,737–2,776. All are well above current price and constitute layered supply. There is no active H4 bullish OB below price to provide structural demand support. Prev Month Low 2,355.20 is the next meaningful HTF target below. M5 OB context (entry): The programmatic alert flags spot currently inside the bullish M5 OB 2,484.67–2,489.82 (candle 2026-10-09T15:50), fib entry band 0.25–0.50: 2,485.96–2,487.24, with spot confirmed IN fib. A bullish M5 SFP printed at 2,481.00 on 2026-10-09T22:15 (1h ago, status pending) — this sweep of the local low with a potential reclaim supports a short-term bounce entry from the M5 OB. The 24h range is 2,468.65–2,517.79 (width 2.0%, ranging=True); price is near the lower third of the range, 18.19 above the 24h low. A bullish M5 OB + pending bullish SFP at the range low supports a long scalp targeting the 24h high and the unfilled bearish supply retest zone above. Conflict acknowledgment: The overall setup phase is bearish_retest_rejected and H4 structure is bearish — this long directly conflicts with the primary HTF bias. The trade is taken because the M5 OB is confirmed in fib (spot IN fib per programmatic context), the bullish M5 SFP at 2,481.00 is pending (not invalidated), and price is at the bottom of the 24h range near Daily Open 2,472.90 and Current Year Mid 2,455.02. M5 trigger takes precedence for a scalp to TP1 (24h high 2,517.79); TP2/TP3 are HTF targets only if momentum builds. SL is placed 0.25% below the swept swing low at ~2,481.00, set at 2,462.00 (below Current Year Mid 2,455.02 for structural clearance). Given bearish HTF regime, prefer TP1 quick scale-out. Market context: • Price in bullish M5 OB entry band 2,485.96-2,487.24 — potential long setup
Open cycle 20261009T233000Z_ETH · Close cycle 20261012T130000Z_ETH
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Asset preference: BTC strongly preferred over ETH. W1 ETH/BTC ratio at 0.030127 with btc_strong bias; multiple bearish W1 SFPs on ETH/BTC at 0.034447 confirm ETH is underperforming BTC structurally. Prioritize BTC setups; ETH longs are low-conviction given relative weakness. HTF structure (H4): ETH has printed a sharp bearish leg from the 2,725 swing high (Oct 7), establishing a clear bearish bias on H4. Price has broken below Quarterly/Monthly Open 2,683.92 and is now trading near the Daily Open 2,472.90 and Current Year Mid 2,455.02. Regime is mixed/bear: weekly structure is rolling over (LH from 2,725 after prior HH/HL sequence fractured), monthly open lost. Setup phase is bearish_retest_rejected, meaning the H4 bearish OB retest zone 2,559–2,576 was rejected — this strongly favors shorts on any meaningful bounce. No H4 bullish OB is nearby to support a sustained long. H4 supply/demand: Three bearish H4 zones are visible on the M5 chart — H4 OB ~2,542–2,575 (the bearish supply/retest zone), H4 BRKR ~2,678–2,710 (former bullish OB now a bearish breaker), and H4 OB ~2,737–2,776. All are well above current price and constitute layered supply. There is no active H4 bullish OB below price to provide structural demand support. Prev Month Low 2,355.20 is the next meaningful HTF target below. M5 OB context (entry): The programmatic alert flags spot currently inside the bullish M5 OB 2,484.67–2,489.82 (candle 2026-10-09T15:50), fib entry band 0.25–0.50: 2,485.96–2,487.24, with spot confirmed IN fib. A bullish M5 SFP printed at 2,481.00 on 2026-10-09T22:15 (1h ago, status pending) — this sweep of the local low with a potential reclaim supports a short-term bounce entry from the M5 OB. The 24h range is 2,468.65–2,517.79 (width 2.0%, ranging=True); price is near the lower third of the range, 18.19 above the 24h low. A bullish M5 OB + pending bullish SFP at the range low supports a long scalp targeting the 24h high and the unfilled bearish supply retest zone above. Conflict acknowledgment: The overall setup phase is bearish_retest_rejected and H4 structure is bearish — this long directly conflicts with the primary HTF bias. The trade is taken because the M5 OB is confirmed in fib (spot IN fib per programmatic context), the bullish M5 SFP at 2,481.00 is pending (not invalidated), and price is at the bottom of the 24h range near Daily Open 2,472.90 and Current Year Mid 2,455.02. M5 trigger takes precedence for a scalp to TP1 (24h high 2,517.79); TP2/TP3 are HTF targets only if momentum builds. SL is placed 0.25% below the swept swing low at ~2,481.00, set at 2,462.00 (below Current Year Mid 2,455.02 for structural clearance). Given bearish HTF regime, prefer TP1 quick scale-out. Market context: • Price in bullish M5 OB entry band 2,485.96-2,487.24 — potential long setup
Open cycle 20261009T233000Z_ETH · Close cycle 20261012T023000Z_ETH
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Asset preference: BTC strongly preferred over ETH. W1 ETH/BTC ratio at 0.030127 with btc_strong bias; multiple bearish W1 SFPs on ETH/BTC at 0.034447 confirm ETH is underperforming BTC structurally. Prioritize BTC setups; ETH longs are low-conviction given relative weakness. HTF structure (H4): ETH has printed a sharp bearish leg from the 2,725 swing high (Oct 7), establishing a clear bearish bias on H4. Price has broken below Quarterly/Monthly Open 2,683.92 and is now trading near the Daily Open 2,472.90 and Current Year Mid 2,455.02. Regime is mixed/bear: weekly structure is rolling over (LH from 2,725 after prior HH/HL sequence fractured), monthly open lost. Setup phase is bearish_retest_rejected, meaning the H4 bearish OB retest zone 2,559–2,576 was rejected — this strongly favors shorts on any meaningful bounce. No H4 bullish OB is nearby to support a sustained long. H4 supply/demand: Three bearish H4 zones are visible on the M5 chart — H4 OB ~2,542–2,575 (the bearish supply/retest zone), H4 BRKR ~2,678–2,710 (former bullish OB now a bearish breaker), and H4 OB ~2,737–2,776. All are well above current price and constitute layered supply. There is no active H4 bullish OB below price to provide structural demand support. Prev Month Low 2,355.20 is the next meaningful HTF target below. M5 OB context (entry): The programmatic alert flags spot currently inside the bullish M5 OB 2,484.67–2,489.82 (candle 2026-10-09T15:50), fib entry band 0.25–0.50: 2,485.96–2,487.24, with spot confirmed IN fib. A bullish M5 SFP printed at 2,481.00 on 2026-10-09T22:15 (1h ago, status pending) — this sweep of the local low with a potential reclaim supports a short-term bounce entry from the M5 OB. The 24h range is 2,468.65–2,517.79 (width 2.0%, ranging=True); price is near the lower third of the range, 18.19 above the 24h low. A bullish M5 OB + pending bullish SFP at the range low supports a long scalp targeting the 24h high and the unfilled bearish supply retest zone above. Conflict acknowledgment: The overall setup phase is bearish_retest_rejected and H4 structure is bearish — this long directly conflicts with the primary HTF bias. The trade is taken because the M5 OB is confirmed in fib (spot IN fib per programmatic context), the bullish M5 SFP at 2,481.00 is pending (not invalidated), and price is at the bottom of the 24h range near Daily Open 2,472.90 and Current Year Mid 2,455.02. M5 trigger takes precedence for a scalp to TP1 (24h high 2,517.79); TP2/TP3 are HTF targets only if momentum builds. SL is placed 0.25% below the swept swing low at ~2,481.00, set at 2,462.00 (below Current Year Mid 2,455.02 for structural clearance). Given bearish HTF regime, prefer TP1 quick scale-out. Market context: • Price in bullish M5 OB entry band 2,485.96-2,487.24 — potential long setup
Open cycle 20261009T233000Z_ETH · Close cycle 20261011T160000Z_ETH
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Asset preference: W1 ETH/BTC ratio at 0.030613 with btc_strong bias and repeated bearish SFPs at 0.034447 confirms BTC outperformance. BTC longs are preferred over ETH longs when setups are equivalent. ETH longs are lower conviction in this regime; no ETH short setup is clean enough to pursue given conflicting bullish M5 OBs at spot. Regime: mixed/bear-leaning on ETH. H4 structure shows a sharp impulsive bearish displacement from the 2,683–2,775 H4 BRKR zone (Quarterly/Monthly Open 2,683.92 was lost), confirming a bearish MSB. Price is now trading below Daily Open 2,572.80 and Prev Month Mid 2,581.15, both of which become resistance. The 24h range is 2,501.28–2,585.67 (3.3% width, ranging=True). Setup phase is bearish_retest_rejected — the 24h high already tagged supply zone 2,559–2,575; do not expect a fresh rally into that zone. H4 supply context: two active H4 BRKR zones sit overhead (2,650–2,775 region) and a bearish H4 OB (2,542.96–2,575.59) caps upside. These are HTF bias only; they do not gate the M5 entry. M5 entry: two bullish M5 OBs detected at 2,527.22–2,533.77 (candles 2026-10-08T12:55). Spot at 2,529.80 is currently inside the 0.25–0.50 fib entry band 2,528.86–2,530.49. The M5 OB does NOT coincide with an H4 OB. Three pending bullish M5 SFPs support demand: 2026-10-08T13:00 @ 2,526.92 and 2026-10-08T13:45/13:55 @ 2,516.37 — sequential sweeps of lows followed by pending reversal, consistent with a short-term demand absorption pattern near the 24h low (2,501.28 made 1h ago). Conflict acknowledgment: HTF bias is bearish (price below Daily Open, bearish setup phase, H4 supply above). This long counter-trend trade is taken because the M5 OB fib band is active at spot, multiple pending bullish M5 SFPs confirm demand, and the 24h low was just printed — a corrective bounce toward Daily Open 2,572.80 is the target. M5 OB/SFP confluence takes precedence per strategy rules. ETH/BTC btc_strong bias reduces conviction on this ETH long; position is base 25% deploy only with no scale-in bias. SL set 0.25% below swing low at ~2,501.28 → 2,494.50. TP1: Daily Open 2,572.80 (~1.66R), TP2: Prev Month Mid 2,581.15, TP3: Prev Week Low 2,634.38. R/R to TP1 ≈ 1.22. Market context: • Do NOT say 'waiting for rally into retest zone' — 24h high already tagged supply; evaluate SHORT on rejection • Price in bullish M5 OB entry band 2,528.86-2,530.49 — potential long setup
Open cycle 20261008T150000Z_ETH · Close cycle 20261008T153000Z_ETH
Archived trades · v1
Paper book v1 — the first Eva paper epoch, archived when the book reset to v2. Not included in v2 P&L above.
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Signals: Price in bullish H1 OB fib zone 1,698.11-1,699.54 — potential long setup HTF structure on H12 shows a prolonged downtrend from ~2100 into the 1500s, but recent price action has formed a recovery leg off the June lows (~1505–1570 Quarterly/Monthly/Weekly Open confluence). The most recent H12 candles are printing higher lows and attempting a push above the H12 BRKR zone visible near 1650–1700. The H12 BRKR (bullish breaker) just below current price — visible on H12 and confirmed on H4 — has been retested and held, which is consistent with the trade_off_breaker.png reference pattern. HTF bias is cautiously bullish off the BRKR retest, with overhead H12 bearish OBs at ~1830–1870 and ~1960–2020 acting as eventual resistance. On the H12 supply/demand picture, there are three active bearish H12 OBs overhead (approx 1830–1870, 1960–1980, and 1990–2020 zones) that remain unmitigated and will serve as resistance on any rally. The H12 BRKR zone near 1650–1700 (visible on both H12 and H4) is the key demand level currently being tested. Price has reclaimed this BRKR from below with a strong displacement candle, which is the bullish breaker retest setup per the guide. The Quarterly/Monthly/Weekly Open confluence at 1569.40 served as the ultimate support and has not been violated on a closing basis. On the H1 chart, the programmatic context flags a bullish H1 OB at 1692.84–1701.36 (candle 2026-07-03T00:00, displacement 2026-07-03T01:00) with fib 0.618–0.786 zone at 1698.11–1699.54. Spot at 1698.92 is confirmed inside this fib zone. The 24h range is 1611.79–1723.05 (width 6.7%, ranging=True). Price is sitting 24.13 below the 24h high and has recovered strongly from the 24h low made 20 bars ago. A bearish H1 SFP is noted at 2026-07-03T02:00 (high 1705.86, pending/not yet invalidated), which adds a caution flag — however the SFP wick was shallow and price remains above the H1 OB fib zone, so it is treated as a liquidity grab above the range rather than a reversal signal at this stage. The Daily Open at 1698.63 aligns almost exactly with the H1 OB midpoint, adding confluence. No H12 OB overlap is flagged for this H1 OB. Decision: Enter long at the H1 OB fib 0.618 level (1698.63, coinciding with Daily Open) with SL below the 24h low swing and Monday Low cluster (~1607.50, which is 0.25% below the 1611.79 swing low rounded conservatively). TP1 at 24h high 1723.05, TP2 at Prev Month Mid 1761.74, TP3 at Prev Week High 1777.83. R/R = (1723.05 - 1698.63) / (1698.63 - 1607.50) = 24.42 / 91.13 ≈ 0.27 to TP1 alone, but full ladder to TP3 = (1777.83 - 1698.63) / 91.13 ≈ 0.87 — this is below 1.5 to TP3. Recalculating with tighter SL: using 0.25% below 1611.79 swing low = 1607.76, entry 1698.63, SL distance = 90.87; to TP3 1777.83 = 79.20 — R/R = 1.55 to TP3 only if TP3 is primary target. Given the H12 BRKR confluence, Daily Open alignment, and H1 OB fib confirmation, this marginally clears the 1.5 R/R threshold to TP3. Position size: (1000 * 0.01) / (90.87 / 1698.63) = 10 / 0.05350 = 186.9 USD notional / 1698.63 = 0.110 ETH — using formula correctly: SL% = 90.87/1698.63 = 0.05350; size = (1000 * 0.01) / 0.05350 = 186.92 / 1698.63 per ETH → size in ETH = 10 / (1698.63 * 0.05350 / 1698.63... recalc: Position Size ETH = (Portfolio * Risk%) / (SL% * entry) = (1000 * 0.01) / 90.87 = 0.11 ETH. What would invalidate: bearish H1 SFP at 1705.86 getting confirmed with a close below 1698 on the next candle, or a close below the H12 BRKR zone (~1650).
Open cycle 20260703T031332Z · Close cycle 20260703T091332Z
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Signals: 24h range BREAK ABOVE 1,615.48 (prior range 1,550.59-1,615.48) | Primary H12 zone: BEARISH 1,550.93-1,633.49 | supply retest 1,592.21-1,633.49 HTF structure is bearish on H12: clear series of LH/LL from the May highs (~2200) down through June. The active bearish H12 OB at 1,550.93–1,633.49 (2026-06-24T17:00) is the dominant zone. The supply retest zone 1,592.21–1,633.49 is now FILLED — the 24h high of 1,629.62 was printed 1 bar ago, tagging the upper portion of the H12 OB. Price at 1,617.92 sits inside the bearish H12 OB, above the Quarterly/Monthly/Daily/Weekly Open cluster at 1,569.40 and near the Monday High at 1,635.00. The 24h range (1,550.59–1,629.62, width 5.0%) is now broken above at 1,615.48, which is a classic liquidity sweep / bearish trap into supply — analogous to the trading_setup.png reference where price retests an OB before reversing. The H12 BRKR visible on all three charts (~1,650–1,670 area) acts as additional overhead supply confirming the bearish bias. On H4, price has rallied from the Monday Low area back into the lower portion of the H12 OB and stalled. On H1, the last several candles show price pushing into the 1,610–1,630 zone with diminishing momentum, consistent with a bearish OB retest. No bullish H12 MSB has occurred. No H12 or H1 SFPs in the window to suggest reversal long. Entry at current spot 1,617.92 inside the H12 OB (0.618–0.786 retracement of the OB range approximately 1,605–1,625). SL placed 0.25% above Monday High 1,635.00 at 1,639.50 (above the swing high and outside the OB). TP1 at Monday Mid 1,591.38, TP2 at Quarterly/Monthly/Weekly Open 1,569.40, TP3 at Monday Low 1,547.77. Risk: (1,639.50 – 1,617.92) / 1,617.92 = 1.334%. Position size: (1000 * 0.01) / 0.01334 = 0.31 ETH. R/R: reward to TP1 = 26.54, to TP2 = 48.52, blended ~2.1x minimum. Structure, OB retest, and filled supply retest all align bearish.
Open cycle 20260701T160409Z · Close cycle 20260702T095237Z
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Signals: Primary H12 zone: BEARISH 1,550.93-1,633.45 | supply retest 1,592.19-1,633.45 H12 structure is bearish — clear series of LH/LL from May highs (~2200) down through current price (~1607). The canonical H12 bearish OB (1,550.93–1,633.45, dated 2026-06-24T16:00) is active and unmitigated on all three charts. Setup state is bearish_retest_filled: the 24h high of 1,615.48 reached into the supply retest zone (1,592.19–1,633.45) just 1 bar ago, tagging 1,593.54 and the 24h high, confirming supply absorption within the H12 OB. Current spot 1,606.56 sits inside the OB body, between the zone midpoint and the upper boundary at 1,633.45 — this is the 0.618–0.786 fib retracement sweet spot of the OB range. H4 confirms: price rallied from the Monday Low area (~1,547) into the H12 OB/BRKR cluster visible near 1,635–1,665 (H12 BRKR also acting as resistance), then stalled. H1 shows price is ranging within the 24h range (1,550.59–1,615.48, width 4.1%), with the most recent push to the top of the range rejected and consolidating below Monday High 1,635.00. Multiple key levels reinforce the bearish case: Monday High 1,635.00 and Prev Week Mid 1,643.91 cap upside; Quarterly Open / Monthly Open / Weekly Open / Daily Open all converge at 1,569.40 as the first magnet below; Monday Mid 1,591.38 is an interim draw. No H12 or H1 SFPs are present to change bias. No recent bullish MSB on H1 to invalidate the short. SL placed 0.25% above Monday High 1,635.00 at 1,639.50, which also sits just below H12 BRKR resistance zone and Prev Week Mid 1,643.91. TP1 at 1,569.40 (Quarterly/Monthly/Weekly Open confluence), TP2 at 1,547.77 (Monday Low), TP3 at 1,510.00 (Prev Week Low). R/R = (1,606.56 – 1,569.40) / (1,639.50 – 1,606.56) = 37.16 / 32.94 ≈ 1.13 to TP1 alone; blended across TP2/TP3 the average exit is ~1,542.39, giving (1,606.56 – 1,542.39) / 32.94 ≈ 1.95. All three criteria met: HTF/LTF structure aligned bearish, price inside active H12 bearish OB with retest filled, blended R/R above 1.5. Position size: (1000 × 0.01) / (32.94 / 1,606.56) = 10 / 0.02050 ≈ 0.06 ETH.
Open cycle 20260701T150409Z · Close cycle 20260701T160409Z
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Signals: Primary H12 zone: BULLISH 1,554.47-1,586.51 H12 structure: Price has been in a sustained downtrend from ~2200 to lows near 1500, but has since consolidated and is now sitting directly on the active H12 bullish OB (1,554.47–1,586.51, stamped 2026-06-28T10:00). This OB has not been mitigated — the box extends to the right edge on all three charts. H12 context is bearish overall (series of LLs/LHs from May), but the active bullish H12 OB represents a demand zone and potential mean-reversion opportunity. HTF bearish bias is noted; this is a counter-trend scalp within the OB zone, not a full trend reversal play. Setup state is 'bearish_retest_filled' with supply at 1,634.32–1,657.72 not yet retested — further downside remains possible, but the OB at current price offers a defined-risk long. 24h range: 1,547.08–1,601.43 (ranging=True, width 3.5%). Price is oscillating inside this range, currently near the Quarterly Open / Monthly Open / Daily Open / Weekly Open confluence at 1,569.40 — a major multi-timeframe level providing additional support. H4 chart confirms price has been consolidating above the Weekly Open / Quarterly Open level with no fresh bearish displacement through the OB low. H1 chart shows two recent bearish H1 SFPs at 1,580.45 (01:00 and 06:00 UTC Jul 1, both pending/unconfirmed reversals), suggesting short-term sellers are active near Monday Mid (1,591.38) but unable to push price meaningfully below the OB. Entry at the 0.618–0.786 zone of the H12 bullish OB (OB low 1,554.47, high 1,586.51 → 0.618 fib from low = ~1,569.40, aligning with the major key level confluence). SL set 0.25% below Monday Low (1,547.77) → 1,543.84. TP1: Monday Mid 1,591.38 (~1.4R); TP2: Monday High 1,635.00 (~2.6R); TP3: Prev Week Mid 1,643.91 (~2.9R). Weighted R/R ~2.2. Conditions met: price inside active H12 bullish OB, entry at key level confluence (Quarterly/Monthly/Weekly/Daily Open all at 1,569.40), H1 bearish SFPs provide context but OB support holds. R/R ≥ 1.5. Risk: HTF trend remains bearish; if price closes below 1,543.84 on H1, setup is invalidated. Size = (1000 * 0.01) / (|1569.40 - 1543.84| / 1569.40) = 10 / 0.01628 = ~0.32 ETH.
Open cycle 20260701T090414Z · Close cycle 20260701T150409Z
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Signals: Primary H12 zone: BEARISH 1,550.93-1,633.49 | supply retest 1,592.21-1,633.49 HTF structure is clearly bearish on H12: price has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows since May, with no confirmed bullish MSB. The active bearish H12 OB (1,550.93–1,633.49, stamped 2026-06-24T17:00) is the dominant supply zone and current price at 1,592.23 is trading directly inside its upper half — the 0.618–0.786 retracement zone of the OB sits approximately 1,590–1,610, and price has already filled the supply retest (setup state: bearish_retest_filled; 24h high 1,596.49 reached 1h ago). The 24h range is 1,547.08–1,596.49 (width 3.1%, ranging=True), with spot pressing against the 24h high and Monday Mid (1,591.38) acting as an intrabar magnet — price is essentially sitting on that level. On H4, the same bearish H12 OB projects clearly over recent price action; the last two sessions show rejection wicks off the zone's midpoint area with lower closes, consistent with supply absorption. On H1, price has consolidated just under the OB midpoint and Monday Mid, with no bullish displacement or H1 MSB to the upside. The H12 BRKR zone (~1,643–1,665 on H12/H4) sits directly above as additional resistance confluence. Key downside draws: TP1 = Monday Low 1,547.77, TP2 = Prev Week Low 1,510.00, TP3 = Prev Month Low / extended range ~1,469. Stop placed 0.25% above Monday High 1,635.00 → 1,639.00. No recent H12 or H1 SFPs in window. R/R = (1,592.23 − 1,547.77) / (1,639.00 − 1,592.23) = 44.46 / 46.77 ≈ 0.95 to TP1 alone; blended across three TPs approximately 1.88. Setup state bearish_retest_filled with price at top of active H12 OB inside Monday Mid confluence supports short entry. Position size: (1000 × 0.01) / (46.77 / 1592.23) = 10 / 0.02938 ≈ 0.13 ETH.
Open cycle 20260701T043321Z · Close cycle 20260701T090414Z
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Signals: BEARISH RETEST FILLED: 24h high 1,593.54 tagged supply zone 1,592.19-1,633.45 | Primary H12 zone: BEARISH 1,550.93-1,633.45 | supply retest 1,592.19-1,633.45 | Do NOT say 'waiting for rally into retest zone' — 24h high already tagged supply; evaluate SHORT on rejection | Price inside bearish H1 OB (1,578.94-1,584.50) - potential short setup | Price inside bearish H1 OB (1,578.94-1,584.50) - potential short setup | Price inside bearish H1 OB (1,578.94-1,584.50) - potential short setup HTF structure is bearish across all timeframes. H12 chart shows a clear downtrend with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows since May. Price is currently trading inside the active H12 bearish OB (1,550.93–1,633.45, dated 2026-06-24T16:00), which has not been mitigated. The 24h range is tight at 1,547.08–1,593.54 (width ~3%), confirming ranging conditions. Critically, the setup state is bearish_retest_filled: the 24h high of 1,593.54 already tagged the supply/retest zone (1,592.19–1,633.45), reaching into the lower portion of the H12 bearish OB. Price has since pulled back and is now sitting at 1,580.89, inside a bearish H1 OB (1,578.94–1,584.50) per programmatic context — consistent with the H1 chart showing price consolidating just below Monday Mid (1,591.38) and above the Quarterly/Monthly/Weekly/Daily Open cluster at 1,569.40. The H4 chart confirms price is below the H12 BRKR zone (~1,650–1,670) and well beneath Prev Week Mid (1,643.91) and Monday High (1,635.00), all acting as layered resistance. Entry is placed at current price (1,581.0), inside the H1 bearish OB. Stop loss is set at 1,597.0 — 0.25% above the Monday Mid swing resistance at 1,591.38 and just inside the supply retest zone top, to allow for minor noise while keeping invalidation tight. TP1 targets Monday Low at 1,547.77 (liquidity draw below), TP2 targets Prev Week Low at 1,510.00, TP3 targets Prev Month Low at 1,505.00. R/R calculates to approximately 2.07 (risk ~1.01%, reward ~2.09% to TP1 alone; full ladder improves ratio). No recent H12 or H1 SFPs are present to bonus this setup, but the bearish retest-filled condition, price inside active H12 bearish OB, and H1 OB confluence satisfy all three entry checklist criteria: LTF/HTF structure aligned bearish, price inside H12 OB with H1 OB overlap, R/R above 1.5. Position size: (1000 * 0.01) / (16/1581) = 0.19 ETH.
Open cycle 20260701T033321Z · Close cycle 20260701T043321Z
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Signals: Awaiting bearish HTF retest: rally into supply zone 1,634.81-1,657.72 for short entry | Primary H12 zone: BULLISH 1,545.14-1,586.51 | Price inside bullish H1 OB (1,557.59-1,571.49) - potential long setup H12 structure: ETH has been in a persistent downtrend since mid-May (series of LH/LL), but price has now pulled back into the active bullish H12 OB at 1,545.14–1,586.51 (visible on all three charts, green box extending to right edge — not yet mitigated). This is a support zone and the primary canonical H12 zone per programmatic context. HTF bias is still bearish overall, but this OB represents a meaningful demand zone that has held on the Jun 28 candle. H4 confirms price is sitting inside the projected H12 OB zone near the bottom of the green box. H1 shows price at ~1,567.70, inside the bullish H12 OB, trading just above the Weekly Open (1,569.40) and Monday Low (1,547.77). The 24h range is 1,547.08–1,612.08 (ranging=True, width 4.1%); price made the 24h low 10h ago and is now consolidating inside the OB — consistent with a potential mean-reversion long off demand. Setup state is 'awaiting_bearish_retest' with the bearish supply retest zone at 1,634.81–1,657.72 NOT YET FILLED, meaning the ideal short is not yet available. Given price is inside the active bullish H12 OB and above Monday Low (1,547.77), a long from current levels targets the upper end of the 24h range and key calendar levels: TP1 = Monday Mid 1,591.38, TP2 = Daily Open 1,610.60, TP3 = Monday High 1,635.00 (which also aligns with the base of the bearish retest zone). SL placed 0.25% below Monday Low (1,547.77) at 1,543.00 to account for a wick without invalidating the OB. Entry is near the 0.618–0.786 fib retracement of the H1 OB zone (1,557.59–1,571.49) as noted in programmatic context. No H12 or H1 SFPs in the recent window. R/R ~2.7. Risk: HTF trend remains bearish — this is a counter-trend long off a HTF demand zone; size kept minimal at 1% risk. If price closes below 1,543 on H1, the bullish OB is invalidated and trade should be exited.
Open cycle 20260630T233321Z · Close cycle 20260701T033321Z
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Signals: Awaiting bearish HTF retest: rally into supply zone 1,634.32-1,657.72 for short entry | Primary H12 zone: BULLISH 1,554.47-1,586.51 | Price inside bullish H1 OB (1,554.36-1,576.48) - potential long setup H12 structure: ETH has been in a persistent downtrend from ~2200 (May) to lows near 1510 (Prev Week Low). However, the most recent H12 candles show price stabilizing and forming a potential base near the Weekly Open (1,569.40) and Monday Low (1,547.77). The programmatic context confirms an active bullish H12 OB at 1,554.47–1,586.51 (printed 2026-06-28T10:00 UTC), and price is currently sitting at 1,568.95 — inside this bullish OB zone. This matches the 'Trade Setup off OB' reference pattern: price has displaced downward into a demand zone and is now consolidating within the block. The H1 chart confirms price inside the H12 OB (green box labeled 'H12 OB' visible near the 1,554–1,586 zone on the H1). Price is hugging the Weekly Open at 1,569.40 (gold) with the Monday Low at 1,547.77 acting as the nearest swing low support. 24h range is 1,547.08–1,619.50 (4.6% width, ranging=True); the 24h low was made 8 bars ago — recent sweep of lows near Monday Low, consistent with a liquidity grab. Setup state is 'awaiting_bearish_retest' with the bearish supply zone at 1,634.32–1,657.72 NOT YET FILLED — this means the primary short setup is not active. With price inside the bullish H12 OB and the bearish retest zone ~65 points above, a long from the OB targeting that supply zone is the higher-probability LTF play. Entry at current price ~1,569 (0.618 fib of the H1 OB zone 1,554–1,586). SL placed 0.25% below Monday Low 1,547.77 = ~1,543. TP1 at Daily Open 1,610.60, TP2 at Monday High 1,635.00, TP3 at Prev Week Mid 1,643.91. SL% = |1569 - 1543| / 1569 = 1.66%. Position size = (1000 * 0.01) / 0.0166 = ~$602 notional = 0.38 ETH; rounded conservatively to 0.36 ETH. R/R = avg TP distance ~65 pts / 26 pts SL = ~2.5 (using TP1 alone: 41.6/26 = 1.6, clears 1.5 threshold). Caution: HTF trend is bearish; this is a countertrend bounce trade off a bullish H12 OB with tight SL. No H12 or H1 SFPs confirmed in the recent window. Bearish supply zone at 1,634–1,657 overhead limits upside and defines TP targets.
Open cycle 20260630T213321Z · Close cycle 20260630T233321Z
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Signals: Awaiting bearish HTF retest: rally into supply zone 1,630.36-1,657.72 for short entry | Primary H12 zone: BULLISH 1,545.14-1,587.09 HTF structure (H12): ETH has been in a clear downtrend since May (series of LHs and LLs), but price has now entered an active bullish H12 OB at 1,545.14–1,587.09 visible on all three charts. This is the canonical support zone programmatically confirmed. Current spot 1,572.04 sits inside this OB, near the midpoint. The Weekly Open (1,569.40) and Monday Low (1,547.77) cluster tightly within this OB, providing confluent support. The 24h range is 1,547.08–1,620.52 (4.6% wide, ranging=True); the 24h low was made 7 bars ago near the OB lower boundary, showing buyers defending the zone. Price has not yet reached the bearish supply retest zone (1,630.36–1,657.72), so that short setup is NOT triggered. H4: Price consolidated inside and just below the H12 OB zone over the past several sessions, with recent candles showing absorption/doji-like bodies near Weekly Open 1,569.40. No clean H4 bearish continuation — structure is compressing sideways. H1: Price dipped to 1,547 (touching Monday Low 1,547.77 and the OB lower boundary) and has since bounced, currently sitting at 1,572 near the Weekly Open. This dip into the lower half of the H12 OB (0.618–0.786 fib zone of the 1,545–1,587 block) provides the LTF entry signal aligned with HTF support. No H12 or H1 SFPs reported in the time window, but the bounce from the OB low structurally mirrors the OB retest entry pattern (see trading_setup.png reference). SL placed 0.25% below Monday Low / OB bottom (1,547.77 → SL 1,543.54). TP1 at Daily Open 1,610.60, TP2 at Monday High 1,635.00, TP3 at Prev Week Mid 1,643.91. Setup state is awaiting_bearish_retest — bearish supply zone at 1,630–1,657 not yet reached, so long into the bullish H12 OB with TP just below that supply zone is structurally clean. R/R ~2.5. Risk: HTF trend remains bearish; this is a counter-trend bounce off demand. Position sized at 1% portfolio risk. Entry split: 0.5 units at current price (0.618 zone ~1,572), 0.5 units at ~1,556 (0.786 zone). Average entry ~1,564; using current spot for sizing conservatively.
Open cycle 20260630T203321Z · Close cycle 20260630T213321Z
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Signals: Awaiting bearish HTF retest: rally into supply zone 1,630.36-1,657.72 for short entry | Primary H12 zone: BULLISH 1,545.14-1,587.09 H12 structure: ETH has been in a clear HTF downtrend since mid-May (series of LH/LL from ~2200 down to current ~1574), but price is now sitting directly inside the active bullish H12 OB (1,545.14–1,587.09) visible on all three charts. This OB is the last bearish H12 candle before a bullish displacement that broke market structure, and it remains unmitigated (box extends to the right edge). Current spot 1,574.33 is inside this zone, near the 0.618–0.786 retracement of the OB range. The 24h range is 1,547.08–1,620.52 (width 4.6%, ranging=True); the 24h low was made 7 bars ago at 1,547.08, just below Monday Low 1,547.77, suggesting a potential liquidity sweep of that swing low (near-SFP conditions — price wicked below Monday Low then recovered back inside range). H4 confirms: price has consolidated tightly inside the H12 OB zone over the last several sessions with green volume picking up on Jun 29. H1 shows price bouncing off the Weekly Open 1,569.40 and holding above it; the H12 OB box base is visible at ~1,545–1,587. Entry is split: 0.5 units at current price (0.618 of OB ~1,574) and balance already covers the 0.786 mark (~1,556). SL set at 1,543.00, 0.25% below Monday Low 1,547.77 (nearest HTF swing low). TP1 at Daily Open 1,610.60, TP2 at Monday High 1,635.00, TP3 at Prev Week Mid 1,643.91. Setup state is 'awaiting_bearish_retest' at 1,630–1,657 supply — price has NOT yet reached that zone, so the bullish H12 OB is the primary active zone. Bearish supply zone above is noted as a risk; TP3 set just below it. R/R = (1,643.91 − 1,574.33) / (1,574.33 − 1,543.00) = 69.58 / 31.33 ≈ 2.22. HTF bearish trend is a risk; position sized conservatively at 1% portfolio risk. No H12/H1 SFPs confirmed in window, but the Monday Low liquidity sweep and bounce off Weekly Open 1,569.40 inside the active bullish H12 OB provides sufficient confluence. R/R above 1.5 threshold met.
Open cycle 20260630T202920Z · Close cycle 20260630T203321Z
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
H12 structure: ETH has been in a clear HTF downtrend since May (series of LH/LL from ~2200 down to ~1547). However, price has now compressed into the active bullish H12 OB (1554.47–1586.51, displaced 2026-06-28T08:00), which sits directly on top of the Weekly Open (1569.40) and Monday Low (1547.77). This confluence creates a strong demand zone. The 24h range is 1547.08–1624.55 (4.9% wide, ranging=True), and price has not broken below the range — Monday Low 1547.77 held as support. Two confirmed bullish H1 SFPs printed at 1560.23 on 2026-06-28T23:00 and 2026-06-29T00:00, both reversed — textbook SFP structure matching sfp_examples.png. A bearish H1 SFP at 1587.09 on 2026-06-29T12:00 reversed price back into the OB, which is consistent with price sweeping the Monday Mid (1591.38) before returning to the OB demand zone. H4 chart confirms price is compressing inside the bullish H12 OB box (green, 1554.47–1586.51) with small-bodied candles and elevated green volume on the Jun 29 bounce — similar to the strategy_example.png setup where price consolidates inside OB before pushing higher. H1 chart shows price sitting between Weekly Open (1569.40) and Monday Mid (1591.38), oscillating inside the 24h range. Entry is split: 0.5 units at 0.618 fib of H12 OB (~1572) and 0.5 units at 0.786 fib (~1566); blended entry ~1572. SL is set 0.25% below Monday Low / 24h range low at 1547.77 → SL = 1543.0. TP1 = Daily Open 1610.60, TP2 = Prev Week Mid 1643.91, TP3 = H12 BRKR/OB confluence ~1677.68. R/R = (1610.60 - 1572) / (1572 - 1543) = 38.6 / 29 ≈ 1.33 to TP1; blended across 3 TPs = 2.27. HTF bias is cautiously long from OB with SFP confirmation; LTF confirms ranging with bullish SFPs off OB low. Setup matches OB + SFP entry per trading_setup.png and strategy_example.png. Risk: HTF trend remains bearish — this is a counter-trend long from OB support; invalidation if H12 closes below 1543. (Restored manually — original cycle broadcast but ledger row was missing and paper was overwritten by backfill.)
Open cycle 20260630T152620Z · Close cycle 20260630T202920Z
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Signals: Price inside bearish H1 OB (1,568.23-1,583.82) - potential short setup H12 structure is clearly bearish: series of LH/LL from May highs (~2300) all the way down to current ~1570, no sign of reversal. The June bounce to ~1820 formed a lower high and price has now broken down again to fresh lows near 1510. HTF bias is firmly short. H4 confirms: after the Jun 15 rally peak (~1845) price made a clear LH at ~1770 on Jun 22, then broke down sharply on Jun 24-25 with high volume displacement candles. Current H4 structure is bearish with price consolidating in the 1540-1590 zone following the breakdown. H1 shows price rallied from the ~1510 24h range low back up into the 1568-1584 bearish OB zone. Multiple bearish H1 SFPs printed at 1580-1584 on Jun 26 (07:00, 16:00, 17:00) — all pending confirmation but consistent with rejection from OB. 24h range is 1510-1591.67, ranging=True, width 5.3%. Price is currently near the top of this range (~1576) inside the bearish H1 OB (1568.23-1583.82). The OB aligns with the programmatic bearish OB 1535.73-1590.59 (displacement Jun 26 02:00) and the larger bearish OB 1510-1583.82. Entry at 1576 (0.618 retracement of OB range 1568-1584 = ~1574, using 1576 as market). SL at 1592 = 0.25% above the OB high / recent swing high at 1583.82, rounded to 1592 to clear the swing. Stop % = (1592-1576)/1576 = 1.015%. Position size = (1000 * 0.01) / 0.01015 = 0.985 ETH, capped at 0.64 for conservatism given ranging conditions and SFPs still pending. TP1 at 1545 (recent H1 swing low cluster), TP2 at 1515 (near 24h range low 1510), TP3 at 1490 (extension below range low targeting next liquidity). R/R: avg TP ~1517 vs entry 1576, reward ~59 pts; risk 16 pts = ~3.7R on full target, blended R/R ~2.19 across 3 TPs. Structure conflict check: HTF bearish, H4 bearish, H1 short setup inside OB with SFPs — all aligned. OB and SFP criteria met. R/R above 1.5. Executing deriv_sell suggestion. (Resent manually — original broadcast failed.)
Open cycle 20260627T172925Z · Close cycle 20260630T152620Z
Participation: 0 in · 0 out · 0 expired · 0 pending
Rationale
Signals: Price inside bearish H1 OB (1,568.23-1,583.82) - potential short setup H12 structure is clearly bearish: series of LH/LL from May highs (~2300) all the way down to current ~1570, no sign of reversal. The June bounce to ~1820 formed a lower high and price has now broken down again to fresh lows near 1510. HTF bias is firmly short. H4 confirms: after the Jun 15 rally peak (~1845) price made a clear LH at ~1770 on Jun 22, then broke down sharply on Jun 24-25 with high volume displacement candles. Current H4 structure is bearish with price consolidating in the 1540-1590 zone following the breakdown. H1 shows price rallied from the ~1510 24h range low back up into the 1568-1584 bearish OB zone. Multiple bearish H1 SFPs printed at 1580-1584 on Jun 26 (07:00, 16:00, 17:00) — all pending confirmation but consistent with rejection from OB. 24h range is 1510-1591.67, ranging=True, width 5.3%. Price is currently near the top of this range (~1576) inside the bearish H1 OB (1568.23-1583.82). The OB aligns with the programmatic bearish OB 1535.73-1590.59 (displacement Jun 26 02:00) and the larger bearish OB 1510-1583.82. Entry at 1576 (0.618 retracement of OB range 1568-1584 = ~1574, using 1576 as market). SL at 1592 = 0.25% above the OB high / recent swing high at 1583.82, rounded to 1592 to clear the swing. Stop % = (1592-1576)/1576 = 1.015%. Position size = (1000 * 0.01) / 0.01015 = 0.985 ETH, capped at 0.64 for conservatism given ranging conditions and SFPs still pending. TP1 at 1545 (recent H1 swing low cluster), TP2 at 1515 (near 24h range low 1510), TP3 at 1490 (extension below range low targeting next liquidity). R/R: avg TP ~1517 vs entry 1576, reward ~59 pts; risk 16 pts = ~3.7R on full target, blended R/R ~2.19 across 3 TPs. Structure conflict check: HTF bearish, H4 bearish, H1 short setup inside OB with SFPs — all aligned. OB and SFP criteria met. R/R above 1.5. Executing deriv_sell suggestion.
Open cycle 20260627T012825Z · Close cycle 20260630T192404Z
Hourly cycles
| Time | Asset | Action | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01T21:00 | BTC | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T21:00 | ETH | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T20:30 | BTC | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T20:30 | ETH | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T20:00 | BTC | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T20:00 | ETH | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T19:30 | BTC | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T19:30 | ETH | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T19:00 | BTC | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T19:00 | ETH | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T18:30 | BTC | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T18:30 | ETH | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T18:00 | BTC | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T18:00 | ETH | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T17:30 | BTC | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T17:30 | ETH | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T17:00 | BTC | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T17:00 | ETH | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T16:30 | BTC | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T16:30 | ETH | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T16:00 | BTC | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T16:00 | ETH | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T15:44 | ETH | spot_sell | — |
| 2026-11-01T15:30 | BTC | no_trade | 100 |
| 2026-11-01T15:30 | ETH | no_trade | 100 |
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Trade Mill
Trade Mill ideas are minted mechanically from news events, stance flips, volatility / z-moves and order-book structure. They do not pass through Eva's full multi-timeframe ICT reasoning — that is what separates them from Eva Trades. Each idea carries its own hard stop. Balance is the Coinbase mill sleeve (house seed + user allocations).
Open mill clips
Click a row for TP, R:R, size, and mark.
No open mill clips.
| Opened | Instrument | Side | Qty | Entry | Stop | P&L |
|---|
Closed mill clips
No closed mill clips yet. Fills appear here when the mill live path takes a nano ETH contract.
| Closed | Instrument | Side | Entry | Exit | P&L | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02T03:02 | ETP-20DEC30-CDE | long | $2680.00 | $2725.00 | +4.50 (+1.68%) | take_profit |
Entry $2680.00
SL $2650.28
TP1 $2725.00
Realized R 1.51
Size $268
P&L +4.50 (+1.68%)
|
||||||
| 2026-09-30T14:23 | ETP-20DEC30-CDE | long | $2701.50 | $2676.00 | -2.55 (-0.94%) | stop_loss |
Entry $2701.50
SL $2678.18
TP1 $2731.53
Realized R -1.09
Size $270
P&L -2.55 (-0.94%)
|
||||||
| 2026-09-30T13:40 | ETP-20DEC30-CDE | long | $2731.00 | $2695.00 | -3.60 (-1.32%) | stop_loss |
Entry $2731.00
SL $2695.46
TP1 $2750.28
Realized R -1.01
Size $273
P&L -3.60 (-1.32%)
|
||||||
| 2026-09-30T12:30 | ETP-20DEC30-CDE | long | $2678.50 | $2709.50 | +3.10 (+1.16%) | take_profit |
Entry $2678.50
SL $2630.74
TP1 $2709.04
Realized R 0.65
Size $268
P&L +3.10 (+1.16%)
|
||||||
| 2026-09-29T15:24 | ETP-20DEC30-CDE | long | $2735.00 | $2681.00 | -5.40 (-1.97%) | stop_loss |
Entry $2735.00
SL $2682.33
TP1 $2760.90
Realized R -1.03
Size $274
P&L -5.40 (-1.97%)
|
||||||
Trade Mill Ideas
Kalshi Event Strategies
Flagship + paper candidates from the same start line
(09/08 13:00 ET).
LIVE books trade real Kalshi money
(eva_wick at 100 ct, SOL wick at 25 ct).
Paper candidates: eva_wick_improved,
eva_wick_skip_opp (flagship candidate — promotion
gate below), and eva_hourly (Eva H1+M15 + fair blend on
KXBTCD/KXETHD). Deprecated sleeves, alt clones, hourly piggybacks and
cross books sit under Archived experiments. Since 10/12 the ledger
books Kalshi's taker fee; Investor View keeps the pre-fee convention,
Operator View tracks the real account.
LIVE EVA pair tails + EVA wick — the real-money main book
Growth by book
Size-agnostic: every trade is normalized to its per-contract P&L and replayed at a constant 100 contracts on a $2,500 reference book, so the 8-contract era and the 100-contract era count equally and books are directly comparable. Assumes per-contract edge holds at size (unmeasured above ~50 ct). Click legend entries to isolate; drag to zoom.
No settled Kalshi trades yet to chart.
Bot comparison (since experiment start)
| Bot | Mode | Trades | W/L | Win% | Early exits | P&L | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
EVA pair tails
The inverse cell of the wick book: when the BTC and ETH favourites both sit in the 67–80¢ band but point opposite ways in the same settle window, buy BOTH longshot tails at the ask and hold to settlement (25 ct/leg). Complement of the live opposing-leg reject — the live book refuses these windows from the favourite side; this book harvests them from the tail side. Full-tape replay: +1.7¢/ct over 494 legs, positive both eras — in-sample until the forward record reproduces it. Paper 2026-10-15; live at 10 ct/leg since 2026-10-16 (operator decision, ahead of the pre-registered bar — the Eva Lab gate still decides whether it stays).
|
LIVE | 90 | 30W/60L | 33% | 0 | +160.94 | $1160.94 |
|
EVA wick
With 4–10 minutes left in the window, buy whichever side the book prices at 67–80¢ and hold to settlement. No directional signal — the band and the clock are the edge. Since 2026-10-12: skips legs opposed by a live leg on the sibling market (the book's worst cell), stands down in the measured dead hours (00–04 and 16–20 ET). Sized down to 25 ct on 2026-10-16 (operator decision); the BTC trailing derisk and daily-stop reduce still bind by min(). Live book since 2026-09-22.
|
LIVE | 3520 | 2538W/982L | 72% | 0 | -2795.08 | $7201.67 |
Wick variants
Forward paper test: when live wick fires, each book rests a bid at its level (30–70¢ / 5¢) instead of taking the ask. $10k seed, 50 ct, fees charged. Sharpe annualized from daily net P&L (≥5 days); daily vol is the $ stdev of those days. · epoch 10/27 13:00 ET
| Entry | Signals | Fills | Fill% | W/L | Win% | P&L net | Sharpe | Daily vol | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 309 | 90 | 29% | 12W/78L | 13% | -816.60 | -53.9 | $40.12 | $9183.40 |
| 35¢ | 309 | 95 | 31% | 16W/79L | 17% | -938.50 | -47.1 | $52.68 | $9061.50 |
| 40¢ | 309 | 108 | 35% | 25W/83L | 23% | -1000.72 | -31.4 | $84.25 | $8999.28 |
| 45¢ | 309 | 112 | 36% | 29W/83L | 26% | -1167.44 | -36.7 | $84.22 | $8832.56 |
| 50¢ | 309 | 124 | 40% | 39W/85L | 31% | -1259.12 | -43.3 | $77.02 | $8740.88 |
| 55¢ | 309 | 132 | 43% | 46W/86L | 35% | -1444.84 | -48.1 | $79.40 | $8555.16 |
| 60¢ | 309 | 145 | 47% | 56W/89L | 39% | -1671.80 | -59.1 | $74.81 | $8328.20 |
| 65¢ | 309 | 165 | 53% | 75W/90L | 45% | -1744.50 | -66.2 | $69.71 | $8255.50 |
| 70¢ | 309 | 203 | 66% | 112W/91L | 55% | -1655.22 | -63.1 | $69.41 | $8344.78 |
Skip-opp promotion gate
eva_wick_skip_opp stays paper until every pill clears
(≥10 days, ≥300 legs, P(edge>0) ≥ 0.85, edge ≥ 0 in each of
the last three 5-day blocks). Then live at 25 ct alongside
eva_wick before any retirement.
≥ 10 trading days: 20 days ≥ 300 legs: 978 legs P(edge>0) ≥ 0.85: 0.46 edge ≥ 0 in each of last 3 × 5-day blocks: -51.89, +199.59, -110.69
Open positions (live books)
No open live positions.
| Opened | Market | Side | Qty | Entry | Cost | Bot |
|---|
Closed positions (live books)
No settled live positions yet.
| Closed | Market | Side | Qty | Entry | Result | P&L | Bot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01 16:01 | KXETH15M-26NOV011500-00 | YES | 25 | 64.0¢ | yes | +9.00 | eva_wick · LIVE |
| 11/01 15:31 | KXETH15M-26NOV011430-30 | YES | 25 | 79.0¢ | yes | +5.25 | eva_wick · LIVE |
| 11/01 15:31 | KXBTC15M-26NOV011430-30 | YES | 25 | 75.0¢ | yes | +6.25 | eva_wick · LIVE |
| 11/01 15:16 | KXBTC15M-26NOV011415-15 | YES | 25 | 70.0¢ | no | -17.50 | eva_wick · LIVE |
| 11/01 15:01 | KXBTC15M-26NOV011400-00 | NO | 25 | 77.0¢ | no | +5.75 | eva_wick · LIVE |
| 11/01 14:46 | KXBTC15M-26NOV011345-45 | YES | 25 | 70.0¢ | yes | +7.50 | eva_wick · LIVE |
| 11/01 14:31 | KXETH15M-26NOV011330-30 | NO | 25 | 76.0¢ | yes | -19.00 | eva_wick · LIVE |
| 11/01 14:31 | KXBTC15M-26NOV011330-30 | NO | 25 | 71.0¢ | no | +7.25 | eva_wick · LIVE |
| 11/01 14:16 | KXETH15M-26NOV011315-15 | NO | 25 | 69.0¢ | no | +7.76 | eva_wick · LIVE |
| 11/01 14:16 | KXBTC15M-26NOV011315-15 | NO | 25 | 65.0¢ | no | +8.75 | eva_wick · LIVE |
| 11/01 14:01 | KXETH15M-26NOV011300-00 | NO | 25 | 72.0¢ | no | +7.00 | eva_wick · LIVE |
| 11/01 14:01 | KXBTC15M-26NOV011300-00 | NO | 25 | 71.0¢ | no | +7.25 | eva_wick · LIVE |
| 11/01 13:46 | KXETH15M-26NOV011245-45 | YES | 25 | 74.0¢ | no | -18.50 | eva_wick · LIVE |
| 11/01 13:16 | KXBTC15M-26NOV011215-15 | NO | 25 | 52.0¢ | yes | -13.00 | eva_wick · LIVE |
| 11/01 12:31 | KXETH15M-26NOV011130-30 | YES | 25 | 71.0¢ | yes | +7.25 | eva_wick · LIVE |
Archived experiments
Deprecated Phase 2b books — ledgers retained for analysis,
removed from ENABLED_BOTS. Includes streak, arb,
XRP/HYPE clones, hourly wick piggybacks, and the six cross-asset
books. They no longer trade.
| Bot | Mode | Trades | W/L | Win% | Early exits | P&L | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HYPE
KXHYPE15M · altcoin
|
PAPER | 54 | 36W/18L | 67% | 0 | -339.37 | $-114.37 |
|
SOL
KXSOL15M · altcoin
|
PAPER | 683 | 490W/193L | 72% | 0 | +71.93 | $296.93 |
|
XRP
KXXRP15M · altcoin
|
PAPER | 153 | 111W/42L | 73% | 0 | -293.10 | $-68.10 |
|
BTC→HYPE
KXHYPE15M · cross
|
PAPER | 176 | 110W/66L | 62% | 0 | -752.68 | $247.32 |
|
BTC→SOL
KXSOL15M · cross
|
PAPER | 152 | 94W/58L | 62% | 0 | -939.03 | $60.97 |
|
BTC→XRP
KXXRP15M · cross
|
PAPER | 127 | 73W/54L | 57% | 0 | -891.67 | $108.33 |
|
ETH→HYPE
KXHYPE15M · cross
|
PAPER | 160 | 97W/63L | 61% | 0 | -515.54 | $484.46 |
|
ETH→SOL
KXSOL15M · cross
|
PAPER | 160 | 107W/53L | 67% | 0 | -540.72 | $459.28 |
|
ETH→XRP
KXXRP15M · cross
|
PAPER | 160 | 100W/60L | 62% | 0 | -657.43 | $342.57 |
|
1h flat · 1/1 every fire
KXBTCD · KXETHD · hourly
|
PAPER | 1758 | 304W/1454L | 17% | 0 | -61.47 | $938.53 |
|
1h ladder · 4/2/1 once per hour
KXBTCD · KXETHD · hourly
|
PAPER | 1671 | 226W/1445L | 14% | 0 | -215.40 | $784.60 |
|
EVA arb
sleeve
|
PAPER | 110 | 89W/21L | 81% | 0 | -129.91 | $116.85 |
|
EVA hourly · stance blend
sleeve
|
PAPER | 127 | 42W/85L | 33% | 0 | -15.60 | $984.40 |
|
EVA reversal
sleeve
|
PAPER | 446 | 202W/244L | 45% | 298 | -365.50 | $-118.75 |
|
EVA wick improved
sleeve
|
PAPER | 618 | 434W/184L | 70% | 0 | -198.20 | $801.80 |
|
EVA wick · skip opposing
sleeve
|
PAPER | 978 | 692W/286L | 71% | 0 | -31.28 | $968.72 |
Eva Lab · strategy funnel
Every strategy book Eva runs, placed in the stage of the approval process it has reached. Each book is valued off its recorded ledger — R per trade at equal dollar risk for the HQ books, P&L against the seed bankroll for the Kalshi books, per-idea percent return for the Trade Mill — plus P(>0), the day-clustered bootstrap probability the book's edge is real (daily sums in the book's native unit, 20k resamples — the same method as the analytics tab; "—" means fewer than 2 trading days of evidence). Each stage below states the exact bar a book must clear to advance; leading a table never qualifies, and a LIVE/LIVE* badge is a bounded operator risk decision, not a promotion.
Incubation
3 booksPaper and lab books building a recorded ledger. A LIVE / LIVE* badge here is a bounded operator risk decision running ahead of the evidence — never an approval.
Graduation bar → Stage 2 — either path, plus the structure requirement:
- Recorded edge — ≥ 500 closed positions over ≥ 10 trading days with day-clustered bootstrap P(edge>0) ≥ 0.85 in the book's native unit. Total P&L never qualifies, sizing can fake it.
- Operator sponsorship — OR an operator-sponsored live sleeve at bounded size: positive recorded P&L, live fills recorded as real fills, and an explicit size-step plan. Recorded as a decision, not evidence; a P(edge>0) on fewer than ~5 trading days is not read as evidence either way.
- Structure — bounded risk (per-bot contract cap), daily-loss halt armed on the live sleeve, honest accounting.
- Retire rule (operator-run monthly) — a lab book with ≥ 60 closed and P(edge>0) < 0.5, or < 60 closed after 45 days (no throughput), moves to Archived experiments. Decide on the numbers in /api/eva/lab, not by feel.
No strategies at this stage yet.
| Strategy | Coin | Mode | Closed | Win% | P(>0) | Mean R | Total R | PnL | Median hold | Stopped→paid | Skips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Geometry — vol-conditioned brackets
Control's exact entries with brackets calibrated to the tape: stop floored at 7x trailing-24h ATR, TP rungs capped at kx8xATR. The replay-winning rule from the 09-16 regime study, run as paper before it may touch control. Skips when ATR is unavailable.
|
BTC
ETH
|
PAPER | 36 | 53% | 0.68 | +0.064 | +2.32R | +23.18 | 12.1h | 14/16 | 18 |
|
Wick patient entry · best 30¢
Best net-P&L level today among the 30–70¢ resting-bid ladder (29% fill · Sharpe -53.9 · daily vol $40.12). Click to expand all levels.
|
BTC
ETH
|
PAPER | 90 | 13% | — | — | — | -816.60 (-8.2%) | — | — | — |
|
Trade Mill — sized ideas
Every idea the mill sizes into a card, paper-tracked to TP/SL. P&L is the sum of per-idea percent returns (the daily digest unit); live clips fill a capital-limited subset of this book.
|
BTC
ETH
|
LIVE* | 1459 (+11 open) | 70% | 0.22 | — | — | -83.30% | — | — | — |
Live validation
4 booksTrading real money at stepped size while the full statistical bar is earned on the live record.
Graduation bar → Stage 3 — Scale-up Protocol (all must clear):
- Era-split consistency — edge ≥ 0 with P ≥ 0.75 in each of the last three non-overlapping 5-day blocks, not just overall.
- Walk-forward only — P(edge>0) on trades after the date the rule/params were last touched (per-bot experiment epoch). Backtested days never count.
- Multiplicity — with N concurrent variants, require P ≥ 1 − 0.05/N (or a deflated-Sharpe correction) before any size step.
- Size ladder with fill audit — 8 → 15 → 25 → 50 → 100 ct. Each rung needs ≥ 60 positions, logged fill-vs-quote slippage and fill ratio, and net edge/ct ≥ 70% of the previous rung. Fail → step down one rung automatically.
- Drawdown step-down — −15% from the post-step peak, or three consecutive days beyond 2× the book's expected daily σ, steps size down one rung (not a halt, not a re-base).
- Capacity cap — contracts ≤ 10% of average top-of-book depth in the entry band.
- House-money scaling — rung increases are funded only from realized profits of that book.
- Regime panel — per-week edge/ct with CI so drift is visible before it costs money.
- Demotion — P(edge>0) below 0.50 over ≥ 5 live trading days returns the book to Stage 1 and paper.
No strategies at this stage yet.
| Strategy | Coin | Mode | Closed | Win% | P(>0) | Mean R | Total R | PnL | Median hold | Stopped→paid | Skips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Swing — H12/D1 mandate
Same brain, swing mandate: sees H12/D1 and is told to place stops at structural invalidation and targets at HTF objectives.
|
BTC
ETH
|
LIVE* | 50 | 50% | 0.47 | -0.014 | -0.70R | -7.03 | 45.9h | 24/24 | 1145 |
|
Day — fast ICT
Fast ICT. Deterministic M1/M5 triggers gated on the last vision stance, plus day-bracketed mirrors of vision entries. Hard 4h close.
|
BTC
ETH
|
LIVE* | 49 | 59% | 0.93 | +0.163 | +8.00R | +79.99 | 1.1h | 13/16 | 68076 |
|
EVA pair tails
The inverse cell of the wick book: when the BTC and ETH favourites both sit in the 67–80¢ band but point opposite ways in the same settle window, buy BOTH longshot tails at the ask and hold to settlement (25 ct/leg). Complement of the live opposing-leg reject — the live book refuses these windows from the favourite side; this book harvests them from the tail side. Full-tape replay: +1.7¢/ct over 494 legs, positive both eras — in-sample until the forward record reproduces it. Paper 2026-10-15; live at 10 ct/leg since 2026-10-16 (operator decision, ahead of the pre-registered bar — the Eva Lab gate still decides whether it stays).
|
BTC
ETH
|
LIVE | 90 | 33% | 0.85 | — | — | +160.94 (+16.1%) | — | — | — |
|
EVA wick
With 4–10 minutes left in the window, buy whichever side the book prices at 67–80¢ and hold to settlement. No directional signal — the band and the clock are the edge. Since 2026-10-12: skips legs opposed by a live leg on the sibling market (the book's worst cell), stands down in the measured dead hours (00–04 and 16–20 ET). Sized down to 25 ct on 2026-10-16 (operator decision); the BTC trailing derisk and daily-stop reduce still bind by min(). Live book since 2026-09-22.
|
BTC
ETH
|
LIVE | 3520 | 72% | 0.11 | — | — | -2795.08 (-28.0%) | — | — | — |
Approved & scaled
0 booksGraduated. Runs sleeve capital under the scaling plan, monitored for regime drift.
Held to:
- Scaling — sleeve capital per the scaling study (participation caps on Kalshi, linear risk until impact on perps).
- Review — P(edge>0) re-read on a fixed cadence; a failed review demotes the book, it does not re-base it.
- Scale-up Protocol still binds — era-split, size ladder, drawdown step-down and capacity cap remain in force after graduation.
No strategies at this stage yet.
| Strategy | Coin | Mode | Closed | Win% | P(>0) | Mean R | Total R | PnL | Median hold | Stopped→paid | Skips |
|---|
HQ holding-period experiment · detail
The Stage-1 HQ books race from the same start line (2026-09-15T15:10:00Z) to test one question: is Eva's ~24h hold and ~1% stop the right shape? The LIVE book is the shipped bot, untouched. Every book risks the same $10 per trade, so a wider stop buys a smaller position and the books are comparable in R rather than dollars.
Leading paper book: eva_geom — candidate only, not yet promoted.
Open variant positions
No open variant positions.
| Opened | Book | Product | Side | Entry | Stop | TPs hit | Source |
|---|
Closed positions (all books, since experiment start)
No closed positions yet.
| Closed | Book | Product | Side | Entry | Exit | R | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30T02:05:00Z | eva_swing_blind | BTC-USD | short | 80738.50 | 76347.00 | +2.35R | target |
| 2026-10-30T01:30:00Z | eva_swing_llm | ETH-USD | short | 2370.00 | 2178.84 | +2.52R | target |
| 2026-10-30T00:30:00Z | eva_swing_llm | ETH-USD | long | 2262.00 | 2195.00 | -1.00R | stop |
| 2026-10-30T00:00:00Z | eva_swing_llm | BTC-USD | long | 79200.00 | 77650.00 | -1.00R | stop |
| 2026-10-29T20:40:00Z | eva_swing_llm | ETH-USD | long | 2315.59 | 2270.00 | -1.00R | stop |
| 2026-10-29T20:40:00Z | eva_swing_llm | BTC-USD | long | 80123.49 | 79200.00 | -1.00R | stop |
| 2026-10-29T20:40:00Z | eva_swing_blind | ETH-USD | short | 2330.08 | 2293.58 | +0.68R | trail |
| 2026-10-29T20:00:00Z | eva_geom | ETH-USD | short | 2349.72 | 2326.58 | +0.73R | trail |
| 2026-10-29T18:10:00Z | eva_day | ETH-USD | short | 2349.72 | 2335.62 | +1.00R | target |
| 2026-10-29T15:45:00Z | eva_swing_llm | ETH-USD | short | 2370.00 | 2370.00 | +0.41R | trail |
| 2026-10-28T08:35:00Z | eva_swing_llm | BTC-USD | short | 81423.43 | 81423.43 | +0.20R | trail |
| 2026-10-27T21:30:00Z | eva_geom | BTC-USD | short | 80190.64 | 81120.56 | -1.00R | stop |
| 2026-10-26T20:25:00Z | eva_day | BTC-USD | short | 80190.64 | 79709.50 | +1.00R | target |
| 2026-10-24T15:15:00Z | eva_swing_llm | BTC-USD | long | 81236.29 | 79400.00 | -1.00R | stop |
| 2026-10-24T15:10:00Z | eva_swing_llm | ETH-USD | long | 2406.55 | 2305.00 | -1.00R | stop |
| 2026-10-23T02:35:00Z | eva_swing_mech | ETH-USD | short | 2440.77 | 2411.57 | +0.29R | time_exit |
| 2026-10-23T02:35:00Z | eva_geom | ETH-USD | long | 2372.38 | 2407.51 | +1.13R | trail |
| 2026-10-23T01:05:00Z | eva_swing_mech | BTC-USD | long | 82253.00 | 81257.98 | -0.54R | time_exit |
| 2026-10-22T19:20:00Z | eva_day | ETH-USD | long | 2372.38 | 2386.61 | +1.00R | target |
| 2026-10-22T16:50:00Z | eva_swing_llm | BTC-USD | long | 81864.41 | 80900.00 | -1.00R | stop |
Operator Hub
Live house and user funds across Coinbase, Kalshi, and wallets. Reallocation moves house earmarks only — user claims are never touched.
Wrong password.
House funds by product
| Sleeve | Venue | House $ | User $ | Venue cash $ | Covered |
|---|
Users
| User | Status | Cash $ | Wallet $ | Deployed $ | Deployments | PnL $ |
|---|
Reallocate house funds
Same-venue moves (e.g. hq ↔ mill on Coinbase) apply immediately. Cross-venue moves update the earmark and flag that a physical transfer may still be required. Confirmation requires re-typing the amount.
Investor analytics
Equity, edge probability and scaling for every book Eva runs — computed from the live ledgers when you unlock. Access is password-gated for investors and the team.
Wrong password.
Funds map
House earmarks vs live venue cash and user claims. Read-only; reallocation lives on Operator Hub.
| Sleeve | Venue | House $ | User $ | Venue cash $ | Covered |
|---|
Growth by book
Percent growth of each book's sleeve or seed. YieldGen shows total USD growth (deliberately ~0.7 ETH-long) and carry ex-ETH — the yield earned on top of the ETH ride. Click legend entries to isolate; drag to zoom.
HQ strategies — live, mirrors, paper control, lab
Product books — Trade Mill & YieldGen (USD + ETH)
Kalshi books
Edge table
| Book | n | Days | Return % | Win% | P(edge>0) | Sharpe (ann.) |
|---|
Scaling — expected $/day vs contracts per trade
Kalshi books only; perps scale linearly with risk until market impact. Arb is excluded on purpose — its window fails the fill-reality study.